Fertility by education and wealth

In poorer countries, women with no schooling have about twice as many children as women with higher education. In Europe and the United States the gap is much smaller, and in some countries women with degrees have more children than those in the middle.

5.0 → 2.5
children per woman, no schooling to higher education: median of 47 DHS countries
45 of 47
countries where women with no schooling have more children than women with higher education
5.4 → 2.8
poorest to richest fifth of households: median of the same surveys
2.5 → 1.8
U.S. women aged 45 to 50 in 2024, no diploma to graduate degree

Poorer countries: a gap of two or three children

Each row is one country's newest Demographic and Health Survey, widest gap first. Switch to wealth to compare the poorest and richest fifth of households. Wealth here is an index of household assets, not income.

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The gap is narrowing

It narrowed in 43 of the 49 countries with at least ten years of surveys, out of 279 DHS surveys in 77 countries since 1985. Nine long-running examples are below. Sometimes women with no schooling had fewer children, as in Peru. Sometimes women with higher education reported more, as in Nigeria and Ethiopia. Hover a chart to read a survey.

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Europe: a smaller gap, sometimes a U-shape

Median 1.88 children for women with the least schooling and 1.50 for tertiary graduates across 29 countries. Where the blue dot sits right of the tick, graduates have more children than women in the middle.

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No statistical office publishes this table across Europe, so these are research estimates: a survey adjusted to match each country’s official fertility rate, and not a birth-register count. They use “total birth intensity at age 49”, which corrects for women with degrees having children later. Few women in some countries are in the lowest group, and Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia needed the largest adjustments, so treat those as rough.

United States: much of the gap is timing

A one-year rate makes women with bachelor's degrees look like they will have 1.3 children, because many are having them later. Among women who have finished having children, the same group averages about 1.8.

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The two sides use different data and education groups, so they do not line up bar for bar. The 2019 rates are from birth records, and 2019 is the latest year NCHS published this split. Family sizes are from a household survey, so moves of about 0.1 between years can be sampling noise.

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This is a pattern, not proof of cause. Women who stay in school also tend to be richer, urban and marry later, and these figures do not separate those effects.

Groups are not the same size, and they change. Women with no schooling are most women in some countries and a tiny group in others, such as Albania, Jordan or the Maldives. As more women stay in school, each group holds a different mix of women, so a narrowing gap is not only a change in behaviour. Single survey points can jump for the same reason. DHS rates cover the three years before each interview, and survey years differ.

Education groups differ by source. DHS counts schooling levels, 2015 European figures use three broad levels, and the U.S. uses degrees. Compare the shape within each chart rather than across them.

Language and income. No official U.S. table gives fertility by language spoken at home, because birth certificates do not record it. Hispanic origin is the closest split, on fertility by race and origin, which also has the country-level income scatter.

Fertility by education and wealth

Poorer countries: a gap of two or three children

Children per woman: no schooling and higher education, latest survey

The gap is narrowing

Children per woman across every survey, no schooling and higher education

Nigeria

Ethiopia

Ghana

Egypt

Bangladesh

Indonesia

Peru

Colombia

Philippines

Europe: a smaller gap, sometimes a U-shape

Children per woman by education in Europe, 2015

United States: much of the gap is timing

U.S. fertility by education: two measures

Births in one year

Finished families

Children ever born to U.S. women aged 45 to 50, 2014–2024

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