Immigrant fiscal impact across countries

Two lenses: OECD yearly accounting for 25 countries (2006–18), and a lifetime break-even comparison for the same household type in four European fiscal systems.

OECD — individual taxes and benefits (Spec A)

Static accounting: taxes and contributions minus benefits and public services, as % of host-country GDP. Spec A = individual-level items only (taxes, cash/in-kind benefits). Spec B = A plus congestible public goods (no pure public goods). Spec C2 = B plus pure public goods (defence, debt interest) apportioned per capita to foreign- and native-born alike.

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Net fiscal contribution as % of GDP — individual items

2006–2018 average. Spec A: immigrants contribute more in taxes/contributions than they receive in individual benefits in every country shown. Under Spec A, immigrants are net contributors in every country in the table. Under Spec C2 (full budget including pure public goods), the immigrant total is usually between −1% and +1% of GDP — similar in magnitude to natives, and often reflecting the country’s overall deficit. This is a yearly stock accounting exercise, not a lifetime NPV for a new arrival.

Foreign-bornNative-born

Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2021, Chapter 4, Table 4.1

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OECD — full budget including public goods (Spec C2)

Once congestible and pure public goods are shared per capita, immigrant and native totals usually sit between −1% and +1% of GDP — and often mirror the country’s overall deficit.

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Net fiscal contribution as % of GDP — all public goods

Spec C2 from OECD IMO 2021 Table 4.1. Positive = net contribution; negative = net cost under this accounting.

Foreign-bornNative-born

Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2021, Chapter 4, Table 4.1

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Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2021, Chapter 4, Table 4.1 · StatLink table. Country briefs pull the matching row automatically where available.

60-year fiscal balance for a couple arriving at age 30, by main earner’s pay percentile

Hypothetical immigrant couple with two children; second adult earns two-thirds of the primary earner’s pay. All countries share the same cohort characteristics so differences isolate the fiscal system (taxes, benefits, pensions), not migrant selection.

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Immigrants must earn more to be net contributors in the UK

Curve values are digitized from the FT graphic of Polani (2026) and rounded to $10k; treat them as approximate. The headline result is the break-even percentile — the pay rank at which the 60-year balance crosses zero. Positive = net contribution; negative = net cost.

Source: Usama Polani, Migration, Household Employment & Europe’s Public Finances (2026), as charted by John Burn-Murdoch / Financial Times

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Pay percentile needed to break even

Where each country’s Polani curve crosses zero for this household type.

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Main-earner percentile at fiscal break-even

Lower is easier: Germany’s system turns this couple net-positive around the 30th percentile; the UK needs roughly the 55th.

Break-even percentile

Source: Usama Polani, Migration, Household Employment & Europe’s Public Finances (2026), as charted by John Burn-Murdoch / Financial Times

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  • Couple arrives at age 30
  • Two children
  • Second adult earns two-thirds of primary earner pay
  • Same hypothetical cohort in every country

Lifetime curves are about fiscal design, not immigrant “quality.” Related: Germany Bürgergeld by nationality, migration hub, country briefs.