Workers vs retirees

In 1960, the world had 11.6 working-age people for every person over 65. Today: 6.3.

People aged 15–64 for every person aged 65 and over, in every country since 1960, projected to 2060 (about 4.5 worldwide). Pick a country to see where it is heading.

World: working-age people per person 65+

1960–2060

11.6 · 19606.3 · 20254.5 · 2060

Solid: World Bank. Dashed: projection. Not a count of employed people — an age ratio.

Start here

Discoveries

Patterns pulled from the data. Open any in the comparison, or share it.

Steepest fall so far

Hong Kong: 24 → 2.8

24 · 19652.8 · 2025

In 1965 Hong Kong had 24 people of working age for every person over 65. In 2025: 2.8, down 88%.

Fastest ageing ahead

Singapore: 5.2 → 1.8 by 2060

5.2 · 20251.8 · 2060

Projected to lose 65% of its working-age people per retiree by 2060, holding today's fertility (0.97), life expectancy and migration.

What 2.1 would buy

South Korea: 1.3, or 1.7

Hollow dot: the same projection at fertility 2.1.

At today's fertility of 0.75, South Korea reaches 1.3 working-age people per retiree by 2060. At replacement fertility it would have 38% more.

Same today, different future

China and Israel

ChinaIsrael

Both have about 4.7 working-age people per retiree today. By 2060: Israel 4.2, China 1.9 — fertility of 2.9 against 1.0.

Oldest today

Fewest working-age people per retiree, 2025

Oldest ahead

Fewest by 2060, projected

Gulf states left out: their workers are mostly migrants who leave before old age.

Compare

Put any countries side by side

World Bank history (solid) and the projection at today's fertility (dashed). Hover or tap for exact values.

Japan2.0South Korea3.4United States3.5Nigeria18.4
Try:
19602060
birthrate.ioWorkers vs retirees

Working-age people per person 65+: Japan, South Korea and 2 more, 1960–2060

Projected for 2060: South Korea lowest at 1.3, Nigeria highest at 30 working-age people per retiree.

051015202530196019802000202020402060Nigeria30World4.5United States3.0Japan1.6South Korea1.3
World Bank, 1960–2025Projection at today's fertility, 2025–2060
Source: World Bank WDI (15–64 and 65+ shares); projection by birthrate.io from the 2025 age pyramid. Ratio of people aged 15–64 to people aged 65+.birthrate.io/workers-retirees?c=japan,korea-rep,united-states,nigeria&from=1960#compare

Map

Watch the world grow older

Play from 1960: the World Bank record, then the projection to 2060. Click a country to compare it.

2025
birthrate.ioWorkers vs retirees

Working-age people per person 65+, World, 2025

22 of 217 countries below 3. Red: few working-age people per retiree; teal: many.

Loading map…
1.5234691424+

People aged 15–64 per person aged 65+ · grey: no data

Source: World Bank WDI population shares aged 15–64 and 65+birthrate.io/workers-retirees?c=japan,korea-rep,united-states,nigeria#map

The great ageing

Everyone is sliding left

Each bubble is a country, sized by population, on a log scale. Play the years and watch the whole world drift toward fewer workers per retiree.

2025
birthrate.ioWorkers vs retirees

2025: every country's working-age people per retiree, sized by population

Half the people in the world lived in a country with fewer than 9.0 working-age people per person over 65.

12346812162432← olderyounger →Half of humanity below 9.0BangladeshIndiaChinaSouth KoreaUnited StatesPakistanNigeriaBrazilJapanIndonesia
Sub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East & North AfricaAsia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaAmericas
Source: World Bank WDI; birthrate.io projection after 2025. Bubble size: World Bank population (2025 for projected years).birthrate.io/workers-retirees?c=japan,korea-rep,united-states,nigeria#spread

Milestones

When each country crossed the line

The first year the ratio fell below the line, from 1960. Dashed names cross in the projection, not yet in the data.

Line at
birthrate.ioWorkers vs retirees

When countries fell below 3 working-age people per retiree

22 of 217 are already below 3; 66 more are projected to cross by 2060.

  1. 1960s

    1

  2. 1970s

    1

  3. 1980s

    –

  4. 1990s

    –

  5. 2000s

    1

  6. 2010s

    7

  7. 2020s

    26

  8. 2030s

    23

  9. 2040s

    15

  10. 2050s

    13

  11. 2060s

    1

Still above 3 in 2060: 129— lowest first

United States3.5Moldova3.8Georgia4.0Guam4.7Israel4.7Dominica5.2Argentina5.3Sri Lanka5.3North Korea5.4Trinidad and Tobago5.4Saint Vincent and the Grenadines5.5New Caledonia5.7Bahamas5.8Greenland5.9Palau5.9Saint Kitts and Nevis6.0Lebanon6.1Venezuela6.5Kosovo6.6Tunisia6.7Panama6.8Colombia6.8Kazakhstan6.9Peru7.1+105 more
Source: World Bank WDI; birthrate.io projection after 2025birthrate.io/workers-retirees?c=japan,korea-rep,united-states,nigeria#milestones

Rankings

Every country, ranked

Click a name to chart it, or add it to your comparison.

birthrate.ioWorkers vs retirees

Fewest working-age people per retiree, 2025

People aged 15–64 per person aged 65+.

#Country199020252060 proj.Change aheadTFR
13.01.392.27+63%2.10
25.71.961.55-21%1.15
34.92.501.96-22%1.41
46.82.512.01-20%0.92
54.62.521.65-35%1.18
65.02.542.25-11%1.25
74.92.571.66-35%1.24
810.82.612.07-21%1.97
94.62.632.17-17%1.36
103.32.652.25-15%1.54
115.92.662.01-24%1.46
124.72.722.34-14%1.61
136.22.722.33-14%1.64
148.12.790.87-69%0.84
1510.52.811.93-31%1.49
165.22.810.80-72%1.16
175.72.822.14-24%1.24
187.92.831.70-40%1.41
195.02.852.48-13%1.72
206.42.851.87-34%1.52
215.72.892.27-21%1.18
223.62.982.26-24%1.43
234.33.002.51-16%1.47
245.33.011.74-42%1.36
257.13.012.01-33%1.37

Gulf states start very high because most residents are young migrant workers; their projected fall is workers leaving the age band, not a society ageing.

Source: World Bank WDI; birthrate.io projection after 2025birthrate.io/workers-retirees?c=japan,korea-rep,united-states,nigeria#rankings

Go deeper

Behind the ratio

China's ageing in detail, the official World Bank rankings, and how the projection works.

China

birthrate.io

Share of China’s population aged 65+

NBS year-end counts through 2025; UN medium path from 2026, level-matched to the 2025 count. Soft fill under the projection — not an 80%/95% prediction interval. Year-end counts from the National Bureau of Statistics replace the UN series from 2019 through 2025 — the same communiqués already used for China’s 2024 and 2025 births. At the end of 2025, 15.9% of the population was aged 65+. From 2026 the line is the UN WPP 2024 medium path, lifted by 1 percentage point (the gap between that NBS share and the UN figure for 2025) so the forecast does not step down. The shaded band marks the forecast period — not a prediction interval.

ObservedUN medium pathForecast period

Have a correction, a better estimate, or additional data—at the global, national, regional, or city level? Help improve the data

China country page · Country briefings · Population simulator

Official age-structure rankings (World Bank)

Share aged 65+ and the age dependency ratio (young and old per 100 of working age) — observed series, not the projection.

Highest share aged 65+

#Country% 65+Year
1🇲🇨Monaco36.0%2025
2🇯🇵Japan30.0%2025
3🇵🇷Puerto Rico25.3%2025
4🇮🇹Italy25.1%2025
5🇵🇹Portugal24.9%2025
6🇬🇷Greece24.4%2025
7🇫🇮Finland24.2%2025
8🇩🇪Germany23.7%2025
9🇭🇰Hong Kong23.7%2025
10🇭🇷Croatia23.6%2025
11🇮🇲Isle of Man23.6%2025
12🇸🇲San Marino23.1%2025
13🇻🇮Virgin Islands (U.S.)23.1%2025
14🇷🇸Serbia23.1%2025
15🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina22.9%2025
16🇧🇲Bermuda22.6%2025
17🇫🇷France22.5%2025
18🇧🇬Bulgaria22.2%2025
19🇸🇮Slovenia22.2%2025
20🇱🇻Latvia22.2%2025
21🇪🇪Estonia21.8%2025
22🇪🇸Spain21.6%2025
23🇱🇮Liechtenstein21.4%2025
24🇨🇿Czechia21.2%2025
25🇭🇺Hungary21.2%2025
26🇩🇰Denmark21.1%2025
27🇦🇹Austria21.1%2025
28🇧🇪Belgium21.0%2025
29🇸🇪Sweden20.9%2025
30🇳🇱Netherlands20.9%2025
31🇵🇱Poland20.8%2025
32🇱🇹Lithuania20.7%2025
33🇲🇹Malta20.5%2025
34🇨🇭Switzerland20.4%2025
35🇯🇬Channel Islands20.4%2025
36🇰🇷South Korea20.3%2025
37🇨🇦Canada20.3%2025
38🇷🇴Romania20.1%2025
39🇬🇧United Kingdom19.7%2025
40🇲🇫St. Martin (French part)19.7%2025
41🇳🇴Norway19.1%2025
42🇸🇰Slovakia19.0%2025
43🇺🇦Ukraine19.0%2025
44🇲🇰North Macedonia18.5%2025
45🇺🇸United States18.4%2025
46🇲🇪Montenegro18.3%2025
47🇧🇾Belarus18.3%2025
48🇦🇺Australia18.1%2025
49🇬🇮Gibraltar17.8%2025
50🇷🇺Russia17.8%2025
51🇫🇴Faroe Islands17.8%2025
52🇦🇼Aruba17.8%2025
53🇦🇱Albania17.6%2025
54🇳🇿New Zealand17.6%2025
55🇨🇼Curacao17.3%2025
56🇧🇧Barbados17.1%2025
57🇨🇺Cuba17.0%2025
58🇲🇩Moldova16.9%2025
59🇦🇩Andorra16.6%2025
60🇺🇾Uruguay16.3%2025
61🇮🇪Ireland16.2%2025
62🇹🇭Thailand16.0%2025
63🇬🇪Georgia16.0%2025
64🇮🇸Iceland16.0%2025
65🇱🇺Luxembourg15.8%2025
66🇲🇴Macao15.1%2025
67🇨🇾Cyprus14.9%2025
68🇨🇳China14.9%2025
69🇨🇱Chile14.6%2025
70🇸🇽Sint Maarten (Dutch part)14.5%2025
71🇦🇲Armenia14.4%2025
72🇸🇬Singapore14.2%2025
73🇲🇺Mauritius14.1%2025
74🇩🇲Dominica13.2%2025
75🇬🇺Guam13.1%2025
76🇹🇹Trinidad and Tobago12.9%2025
77🇨🇷Costa Rica12.8%2025
78🇰🇵North Korea12.7%2025
79🇮🇱Israel12.7%2025
80🇦🇷Argentina12.6%2025
81🇬🇩Grenada12.6%2025
82🇱🇰Sri Lanka12.5%2025
83🇦🇬Antigua and Barbuda12.3%2025
84🇻🇨St. Vincent and the Grenadines12.3%2025
85🇧🇸Bahamas12.1%2025
86🇵🇫French Polynesia11.9%2025
87🇵🇼Palau11.8%2025
88🇳🇨New Caledonia11.8%2025
89🇰🇳St. Kitts and Nevis11.7%2025
90🇹🇨Turks and Caicos Islands11.7%2025
91🇬🇱Greenland11.5%2025
92🇧🇷Brazil11.5%2025
93🇲🇵Northern Mariana Islands10.8%2025
94🇹🇷Türkiye10.6%2025
95🇽🇰Kosovo10.5%2025
96🇱🇧Lebanon10.4%2025
97🇨🇴Colombia10.2%2025
98🇻🇬British Virgin Islands10.1%2025
99🇻🇪Venezuela10.0%2025
100🇱🇨Saint Lucia10.0%2025
101🇹🇳Tunisia9.9%2025
102🇵🇦Panama9.7%2025
103🇰🇾Cayman Islands9.5%2025
104🇻🇳Vietnam9.5%2025
105🇵🇪Peru9.5%2025
106🇦🇿Azerbaijan9.2%2025
107🇰🇿Kazakhstan9.0%2025
108🇸🇨Seychelles8.7%2025
109🇪🇨Ecuador8.6%2025
110🇮🇷Iran8.6%2025
111🇯🇲Jamaica8.6%2025
112🇦🇸American Samoa8.5%2025
113🇲🇽Mexico8.5%2025
114🇲🇦Morocco8.5%2025
115🇸🇻El Salvador8.3%2025
116🇸🇷Suriname8.2%2025
117🇩🇴Dominican Republic8.2%2025
118🇲🇾Malaysia8.0%2025
119🇮🇩Indonesia7.5%2025
120🇲🇲Myanmar7.5%2025
121🇮🇳India7.4%2025
122🇧🇳Brunei7.2%2025
123🇨🇻Cape Verde7.2%2025
124🇹🇻Tuvalu7.0%2025
125🇬🇾Guyana7.0%2025
126🇿🇦South Africa6.9%2025
127🇹🇴Tonga6.9%2025
128🇩🇿Algeria6.8%2025
129🇵🇾Paraguay6.7%2025
130🇧🇩Bangladesh6.7%2025
131🇫🇯Fiji6.6%2025
132🇧🇹Bhutan6.6%2025
133🇳🇵Nepal6.6%2025
134🇰🇭Cambodia6.4%2025
135🇫🇲Micronesia6.2%2025
136🇺🇿Uzbekistan6.1%2025
137🇼🇸Samoa6.1%2025
138🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan6.0%2025
139🇧🇴Bolivia5.7%2025
140🇵🇭Philippines5.7%2025
141🇳🇮Nicaragua5.7%2025
142🇲🇳Mongolia5.4%2025
143🇪🇬Egypt5.3%2025
144🇹🇱Timor-Leste5.2%2025
145🇧🇿Belize5.2%2025
146🇱🇾Libya5.2%2025
147🇩🇯Djibouti5.0%2025
148🇬🇹Guatemala5.0%2025
149🇲🇻Maldives5.0%2025
150🇲🇭Marshall Islands4.9%2025
151🇸🇾Syria4.8%2025
152🇱🇦Laos4.8%2025
153🇹🇲Turkmenistan4.8%2025
154🇭🇹Haiti4.8%2025
155🇯🇴Jordan4.8%2025
156🇭🇳Honduras4.5%2025
157🇰🇲Comoros4.5%2025
158🇻🇺Vanuatu4.4%2025
159🇰🇮Kiribati4.4%2025
160🇵🇰Pakistan4.4%2025
161🇸🇿Eswatini4.3%2025
162🇪🇷Eritrea4.3%2025
163🇬🇦Gabon4.1%2025
164🇧🇼Botswana4.1%2025
165🇹🇯Tajikistan4.1%2025
166🇷🇼Rwanda4.0%2025
167🇧🇭Bahrain4.0%2025
168🇸🇹Sao Tome and Principe3.9%2025
169🇱🇸Lesotho3.9%2025
170🇵🇸West Bank and Gaza3.9%2025
171🇳🇦Namibia3.8%2025
172🇬🇭Ghana3.8%2025
173🇬🇶Equatorial Guinea3.8%2025
174🇸🇧Solomon Islands3.7%2025
175🇸🇳Senegal3.6%2025
176🇵🇬Papua New Guinea3.6%2025
177🇿🇼Zimbabwe3.6%2025
178🇹🇬Togo3.5%2025
179🇬🇳Guinea3.5%2025
180🇲🇬Madagascar3.5%2025
181🇮🇶Iraq3.4%2025
182🇸🇩Sudan3.4%2025
183🇱🇷Liberia3.3%2025
184🇪🇹Ethiopia3.3%2025
185🇸🇱Sierra Leone3.3%2025
186🇲🇷Mauritania3.2%2025
187🇬🇼Guinea-Bissau3.2%2025
188🇬🇲Gambia3.2%2025
189🇰🇼Kuwait3.2%2025
190🇧🇯Benin3.2%2025
191🇨🇩DR Congo3.1%2025
192🇸🇸South Sudan3.1%2025
193🇳🇬Nigeria3.1%2025
194🇨🇬Congo3.1%2025
195🇸🇦Saudi Arabia3.1%2025
196🇹🇿Tanzania3.0%2025
197🇰🇪Kenya3.0%2025
198🇳🇷Naoero3.0%2025
199🇦🇴Angola2.9%2025
200🇨🇲Cameroon2.8%2025
201🇲🇿Mozambique2.7%2025
202🇴🇲Oman2.7%2025
203🇧🇫Burkina Faso2.7%2025
204🇨🇮Cote d'Ivoire2.7%2025
205🇳🇪Niger2.6%2025
206🇸🇴Somalia2.6%2025
207🇲🇼Malawi2.6%2025
208🇧🇮Burundi2.5%2025
209🇾🇪Yemen2.5%2025
210🇦🇫Afghanistan2.4%2025
211🇲🇱Mali2.4%2025
212🇺🇬Uganda2.2%2025
213🇨🇫Central African Republic2.2%2025
214🇹🇩Chad2.1%2025
215🇿🇲Zambia2.0%2025
216🇦🇪UAE1.8%2025
217🇶🇦Qatar1.7%2025

Highest age dependency ratio

#CountryDependencyYear
1🇨🇫Central African Republic103.62025
2🇲🇨Monaco99.12025
3🇸🇴Somalia96.72025
4🇨🇩DR Congo96.22025
5🇳🇪Niger95.52025
6🇲🇱Mali92.92025
7🇹🇩Chad92.62025
8🇦🇴Angola88.72025
9🇲🇿Mozambique88.32025
10🇧🇮Burundi87.02025
11🇲🇷Mauritania83.92025
12🇹🇿Tanzania83.12025
13🇺🇬Uganda82.92025
14🇦🇫Afghanistan81.82025
15🇧🇯Benin79.92025
16🇼🇸Samoa79.02025
17🇬🇳Guinea78.62025
18🇨🇲Cameroon78.42025
19🇹🇬Togo78.32025
20🇧🇫Burkina Faso78.12025
21🇿🇼Zimbabwe78.12025
22🇸🇩Sudan77.32025
23🇳🇬Nigeria77.32025
24🇾🇪Yemen77.22025
25🇨🇮Cote d'Ivoire75.82025
26🇨🇬Congo75.52025
27🇿🇲Zambia75.32025
28🇬🇲Gambia75.22025
29🇲🇼Malawi74.62025
30🇱🇷Liberia73.72025
31🇲🇬Madagascar73.62025
32🇻🇺Vanuatu73.42025
33🇪🇹Ethiopia72.62025
34🇪🇷Eritrea72.02025
35🇹🇴Tonga71.72025
36🇬🇼Guinea-Bissau71.12025
37🇵🇸West Bank and Gaza70.82025
38🇸🇹Sao Tome and Principe70.62025
39🇸🇳Senegal70.62025
40🇰🇲Comoros70.42025
41🇯🇵Japan70.22025
42🇸🇸South Sudan69.72025
43🇷🇼Rwanda69.62025
44🇸🇱Sierra Leone69.32025
45🇬🇶Equatorial Guinea69.12025
46🇲🇫St. Martin (French part)68.72025
47🇵🇰Pakistan68.42025
48🇳🇦Namibia67.92025
49🇬🇦Gabon67.72025
50🇸🇧Solomon Islands67.32025
51🇳🇷Naoero67.12025
52🇹🇻Tuvalu66.82025
53🇹🇯Tajikistan66.52025
54🇮🇱Israel66.32025
55🇻🇮Virgin Islands (U.S.)65.52025
56🇮🇶Iraq65.22025
57🇰🇪Kenya64.72025
58🇬🇭Ghana64.52025
59🇬🇺Guam63.82025
60🇲🇭Marshall Islands63.32025
61🇫🇷France63.32025
62🇰🇮Kiribati63.22025
63🇫🇮Finland62.72025
64🇹🇱Timor-Leste62.22025
65🇰🇿Kazakhstan61.72025
66🇱🇸Lesotho61.22025
67🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan61.02025
68🇫🇲Micronesia60.52025
69🇵🇹Portugal60.42025
70🇫🇴Faroe Islands60.42025
71🇸🇪Sweden60.32025
72🇩🇪Germany60.22025
73🇮🇲Isle of Man60.02025
74🇱🇻Latvia59.72025
75🇺🇿Uzbekistan59.62025
76🇸🇿Eswatini59.62025
77🇭🇷Croatia59.52025
78🇷🇸Serbia59.52025
79🇬🇷Greece59.42025
80🇪🇪Estonia58.92025
81🇲🇳Mongolia58.72025
82🇪🇬Egypt58.32025
83🇮🇹Italy58.12025
84🇵🇬Papua New Guinea58.12025
85🇩🇿Algeria58.12025
86🇸🇮Slovenia58.02025
87🇩🇰Denmark57.92025
88🇬🇧United Kingdom57.92025
89🇧🇪Belgium57.92025
90🇧🇬Bulgaria57.82025
91🇵🇷Puerto Rico57.52025
92🇬🇪Georgia57.42025
93🇲🇩Moldova57.22025
94🇨🇿Czechia56.92025
95🇲🇪Montenegro56.72025
96🇧🇼Botswana56.32025
97🇱🇧Lebanon56.32025
98🇹🇲Turkmenistan56.32025
99🇬🇹Guatemala56.22025
100🇧🇲Bermuda56.22025
101🇬🇾Guyana56.02025
102🇰🇭Cambodia55.92025
103🇳🇱Netherlands55.82025
104🇦🇺Australia55.72025
105🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina55.52025
106🇷🇴Romania55.52025
107🇱🇮Liechtenstein55.32025
108🇭🇹Haiti55.22025
109🇭🇺Hungary55.12025
110🇳🇿New Zealand55.02025
111🇺🇸United States55.02025
112🇬🇮Gibraltar54.92025
113🇨🇭Switzerland54.62025
114🇦🇹Austria54.42025
115🇨🇦Canada54.42025
116🇱🇹Lithuania54.42025
117🇵🇱Poland54.42025
118🇧🇴Bolivia54.32025
119🇵🇾Paraguay54.12025
120🇲🇰North Macedonia54.02025
121🇳🇴Norway53.92025
122🇸🇲San Marino53.82025
123🇯🇴Jordan53.72025
124🇻🇪Venezuela53.72025
125🇦🇸American Samoa53.62025
126🇷🇺Russia53.42025
127🇭🇳Honduras53.42025
128🇳🇵Nepal53.12025
129🇱🇦Laos53.02025
130🇸🇰Slovakia52.92025
131🇯🇬Channel Islands52.62025
132🇩🇴Dominican Republic52.42025
133🇧🇩Bangladesh52.22025
134🇮🇪Ireland52.22025
135🇦🇼Aruba52.22025
136🇪🇸Spain52.12025
137🇦🇱Albania52.02025
138🇵🇦Panama51.92025
139🇺🇾Uruguay51.92025
140🇱🇰Sri Lanka51.92025
141🇧🇾Belarus51.92025
142🇧🇧Barbados51.92025
143🇳🇮Nicaragua51.52025
144🇭🇰Hong Kong51.52025
145🇩🇯Djibouti51.02025
146🇦🇷Argentina50.72025
147🇲🇦Morocco50.72025
148🇸🇷Suriname50.42025
149🇹🇳Tunisia50.42025
150🇮🇸Iceland50.42025
151🇫🇯Fiji50.32025
152🇲🇹Malta50.22025
153🇦🇲Armenia50.22025
154🇸🇾Syria49.92025
155🇻🇨St. Vincent and the Grenadines49.52025
156🇵🇪Peru49.42025
157🇳🇨New Caledonia49.02025
158🇵🇭Philippines48.92025
159🇸🇻El Salvador48.62025
160🇺🇦Ukraine48.52025
161🇲🇽Mexico48.42025
162🇿🇦South Africa48.42025
163🇪🇨Ecuador48.12025
164🇻🇳Vietnam47.82025
165🇬🇱Greenland47.62025
166🇨🇺Cuba47.22025
167🇱🇾Libya47.12025
168🇲🇵Northern Mariana Islands47.12025
169🇨🇼Curacao46.92025
170🇨🇻Cape Verde46.72025
171🇮🇩Indonesia46.62025
172🇰🇵North Korea46.32025
173🇬🇩Grenada46.32025
174🇲🇲Myanmar46.22025
175🇹🇷Türkiye46.22025
176🇮🇳India46.12025
177🇱🇺Luxembourg46.12025
178🇧🇿Belize46.02025
179🇨🇱Chile45.22025
180🇨🇷Costa Rica45.12025
181🇨🇾Cyprus45.02025
182🇧🇷Brazil44.62025
183🇩🇲Dominica44.52025
184🇮🇷Iran44.12025
185🇰🇷South Korea44.02025
186🇽🇰Kosovo43.92025
187🇹🇭Thailand43.72025
188🇹🇹Trinidad and Tobago43.72025
189🇵🇫French Polynesia43.72025
190🇦🇿Azerbaijan43.62025
191🇨🇳China43.52025
192🇨🇴Colombia43.32025
193🇰🇳St. Kitts and Nevis43.02025
194🇦🇬Antigua and Barbuda42.52025
195🇵🇼Palau42.42025
196🇧🇸Bahamas42.12025
197🇲🇾Malaysia41.52025
198🇸🇽Sint Maarten (Dutch part)41.42025
199🇲🇴Macao40.52025
200🇲🇺Mauritius40.22025
201🇸🇨Seychelles39.92025
202🇦🇩Andorra39.22025
203🇧🇳Brunei38.62025
204🇹🇨Turks and Caicos Islands38.22025
205🇱🇨Saint Lucia37.42025
206🇴🇲Oman37.02025
207🇧🇹Bhutan37.02025
208🇯🇲Jamaica36.72025
209🇸🇦Saudi Arabia36.42025
210🇸🇬Singapore35.02025
211🇰🇾Cayman Islands34.42025
212🇻🇬British Virgin Islands31.92025
213🇲🇻Maldives31.62025
214🇧🇭Bahrain28.92025
215🇰🇼Kuwait26.82025
216🇦🇪UAE21.62025
217🇶🇦Qatar20.02025

How the numbers are made

The ratio. People aged 15–64 divided by people aged 65 and over, from the World Bank's population shares (1960–2025). It counts ages, not jobs: students, the unemployed and people caring at home are in the top half; working pensioners are in the bottom half.

The projection. From each country's 2025 age pyramid, aged forward in 5-year steps, holding today's fertility and life expectancy and a robust recent net-migration level (the median of the last five years; years above 1% of population are treated as shocks and held at zero). It is planning arithmetic, not a UN forecast; in spot checks against UN World Population Prospects it comes out more conservative, with smaller declines. It is rescaled to meet the World Bank figure in 2025, and drawn interpolated between its 5-year steps.

The 2.1 scenario. The same projection with fertility set to replacement. Most people of working age in 2060 are already born, so fertility shows up slowly; migration and longevity matter as much.