Overview
Key figures and core demographic trends for China.
Population
1.4B
Fertility Rate
1.01
Life Expectancy
78.0y
GDP / capita
$13.9K
Pop. Growth
-0.17%
Net Migration
-268.1K
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Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
TFR 2024
1.10
TFR 2025
0.95
TFR 2026
0.90
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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Economy
National accounts and international trade.
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Exports & imports
International trade for China — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
Compare with another country
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Migration
Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of China, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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Largest foreign-born communities in China by country of birth (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in China who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Demography
Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 73% smaller than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 633 million in 2100 — higher than this run (low 406 million, high 954 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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Mortality & longevity
Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1960), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized.
Health, education & infrastructure
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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Society, housing & beliefs
Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
0.5
Divorce rate
3.1
Births outside marriage
—
Home ownership
90.0%
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- Unaffiliated52.0%
- Folk religion22.0%
- Buddhist18.0%
- Christian5.0%
- Muslim2.0%
- Other1.0%
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20per 1,000
2019
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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States & provinces
Total fertility rate by first-level administrative division.
Open the regional fertility map →
China: floorspace per household, 2020 →
| # | Division | Population | TFR | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tibetautonomous region | 3.6M | 1.74 | 2020 |
| 2 | Guangxiautonomous region | 50.1M | 1.49 | 2020 |
| 3 | Guizhouprovince | 38.6M | 1.48 | 2020 |
| 4 | Hainanprovince | 10.1M | 1.44 | 2020 |
| 5 | Xinjiangautonomous region | 25.9M | 1.41 | 2020 |
| 6 | Henanprovince | 99.4M | 1.38 | 2020 |
| 7 | Ningxiaautonomous region | 7.2M | 1.36 | 2020 |
| 8 | Yunnanprovince | 47.2M | 1.33 | 2020 |
| 9 | Qinghaiprovince | 5.9M | 1.30 | 2020 |
| 10 | Jiangxiprovince | 45.2M | 1.28 | 2020 |
| 11 | Anhuiprovince | 61M | 1.26 | 2020 |
| 12 | Shandongprovince | 101.5M | 1.24 | 2020 |
| 13 | Hunanprovince | 66.4M | 1.24 | 2020 |
| 14 | Guangdongprovince | 126M | 1.22 | 2020 |
| 15 | Gansuprovince | 25M | 1.21 | 2020 |
| 16 | Hubeiprovince | 57.8M | 1.18 | 2020 |
| 17 | Shaanxiprovince | 39.5M | 1.18 | 2020 |
| 18 | Hebeiprovince | 74.6M | 1.13 | 2020 |
| 19 | Fujianprovince | 41.5M | 1.12 | 2020 |
| 20 | Shanxiprovince | 34.9M | 1.10 | 2020 |
| 21 | Sichuanprovince | 83.7M | 1.10 | 2020 |
| 22 | Inner Mongoliaautonomous region | 24M | 1.07 | 2020 |
| 23 | Zhejiangprovince | 64.6M | 1.07 | 2020 |
| 24 | Jiangsuprovince | 84.7M | 1.05 | 2020 |
| 25 | Chongqingmunicipality | 32.1M | 1.05 | 2020 |
| 26 | Tianjinmunicipality | 13.9M | 0.90 | 2020 |
| 27 | Beijingmunicipality | 21.9M | 0.87 | 2020 |
| 28 | Liaoningprovince | 42.6M | 0.85 | 2020 |
| 29 | Jilinprovince | 24.1M | 0.84 | 2020 |
| 30 | Heilongjiangprovince | 31.9M | 0.76 | 2020 |
| 31 | Shanghaimunicipality | 24.9M | 0.74 | 2020 |
Why this country’s demographics matter
Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
China’s fertility collapse is recent, large, and already visible in births. The one-child cohorts are now the parents.
- National TFR is well below 1.5 in compiled recent years; provincial maps are estimates, not an NBS TFR table.
- Aging speed, not just level, is the briefing point.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. The case for a pronatal culture as the response is on what's the solution?. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.