Overview
Key figures and core demographic trends for Russian Federation.
Population
143.5M
Fertility Rate
1.42
Life Expectancy
73.4y
GDP / capita
$17.5K
Pop. Growth
-0.11%
Net Migration
-251.8K
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Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
TFR 2024
1.40
TFR 2025
1.38
TFR 2026
1.35
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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Economy
National accounts and international trade.
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Exports & imports
International trade for Russian Federation — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
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Migration
Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of Russian Federation, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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Largest foreign-born communities in Russian Federation by country of birth (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in Russian Federation who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Demography
Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 49% smaller than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 126 million in 2100 — higher than this run (low 88 million, high 176 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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Mortality & longevity
Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1960), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized.
Health, education & infrastructure
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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Society, housing & beliefs
Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
6.8
Divorce rate
3.9
Births outside marriage
21.0%
Home ownership
89.0%
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- Christian73.0%
- Unaffiliated15.0%
- Muslim10.0%
- Other2.0%
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States & provinces
Total fertility rate by first-level administrative division.
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| # | Division | Population | TFR | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chechen Republicrepublic | 1.6M | 2.60 | 2025 |
| 2 | Tuva Republicrepublic | — | 2.21 | 2025 |
| 3 | Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugautonomous okrug | — | 2.01 | 2025 |
| 4 | Republic of Dagestanrepublic | 3.2M | 1.79 | 2025 |
| 5 | Altai Republicrepublic | — | 1.78 | 2025 |
| 6 | Republic of Ingushetiarepublic | — | 1.75 | 2025 |
| 7 | Tyumen Oblastoblast | 3.9M | 1.73 | 2025 |
| 8 | Chukotka Autonomous Okrugautonomous okrug | — | 1.72 | 2025 |
| 9 | Sakhalin Oblastoblast | — | 1.69 | 2025 |
| 10 | Nenets Autonomous Okrugautonomous okrug | — | 1.62 | 2025 |
| 11 | Astrakhan Oblastoblast | — | 1.60 | 2025 |
| 12 | Irkutsk Oblastoblast | 2.3M | 1.60 | 2025 |
| 13 | Kabardino-Balkariarepublic | — | 1.58 | 2025 |
| 14 | Kamchatka Kraikrai | — | 1.57 | 2025 |
| 15 | Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugautonomous okrug | 1.7M | 1.57 | 2025 |
| 16 | North Ossetia–Alaniarepublic | — | 1.55 | 2025 |
| 17 | Kurgan Oblastoblast | — | 1.52 | 2025 |
| 18 | Sakha (Yakutia)republic | 1M | 1.52 | 2025 |
| 19 | Zabaykalsky Kraikrai | — | 1.52 | 2025 |
| 20 | Republic of Kareliarepublic | — | 1.51 | 2025 |
| 21 | Komi Republicrepublic | — | 1.51 | 2025 |
| 22 | Krasnodar Kraikrai | 5.8M | 1.50 | 2025 |
| 23 | Sverdlovsk Oblastoblast | 4.2M | 1.48 | 2025 |
| 24 | Republic of Buryatiarepublic | — | 1.48 | 2025 |
| 25 | Republic of Crimearepublic | — | 1.48 | 2025 |
| 26 | Perm Kraikrai | 2.5M | 1.45 | 2025 |
| 27 | Republic of Tatarstanrepublic | 4M | 1.44 | 2025 |
| 28 | Republic of Khakassiarepublic | — | 1.44 | 2025 |
| 29 | Moscowfederal city | 13.1M | 1.43 | 2025 |
| 30 | Novosibirsk Oblastoblast | 2.8M | 1.43 | 2025 |
| 31 | Kirov Oblastoblast | — | 1.43 | 2025 |
| 32 | Omsk Oblastoblast | 1.9M | 1.42 | 2025 |
| 33 | Khabarovsk Kraikrai | — | 1.40 | 2025 |
| 34 | Kostroma Oblastoblast | — | 1.40 | 2025 |
| 35 | Chelyabinsk Oblastoblast | 3.4M | 1.39 | 2025 |
| 36 | Jewish Autonomous Oblastautonomous oblast | — | 1.39 | 2025 |
| 37 | Orenburg Oblastoblast | 1.9M | 1.39 | 2025 |
| 38 | Primorsky Kraikrai | 1.8M | 1.39 | 2025 |
| 39 | Krasnoyarsk Kraikrai | 2.8M | 1.38 | 2025 |
| 40 | Republic of Adygearepublic | — | 1.38 | 2025 |
| 41 | Vologda Oblastoblast | — | 1.38 | 2025 |
| 42 | Karachay-Cherkess Republicrepublic | — | 1.37 | 2025 |
| 43 | Amur Oblastoblast | — | 1.36 | 2025 |
| 44 | Arkhangelsk Oblastoblast | — | 1.35 | 2025 |
| 45 | Mari El Republicrepublic | — | 1.35 | 2025 |
| 46 | Moscow Oblastoblast | 8.6M | 1.33 | 2025 |
| 47 | Chuvash Republicrepublic | — | 1.33 | 2025 |
| 48 | Murmansk Oblastoblast | — | 1.32 | 2025 |
| 49 | Udmurt Republicrepublic | — | 1.32 | 2025 |
| 50 | Republic of Bashkortostanrepublic | 4.1M | 1.31 | 2025 |
| 51 | Nizhny Novgorod Oblastoblast | 3.1M | 1.31 | 2025 |
| 52 | Samara Oblastoblast | 3.1M | 1.30 | 2025 |
| 53 | Rostov Oblastoblast | 4.2M | 1.27 | 2025 |
| 54 | Kaluga Oblastoblast | — | 1.27 | 2025 |
| 55 | Ivanovo Oblastoblast | — | 1.26 | 2025 |
| 56 | Pskov Oblastoblast | — | 1.26 | 2025 |
| 57 | Saint Petersburgfederal city | 5.6M | 1.25 | 2025 |
| 58 | Magadan Oblastoblast | — | 1.25 | 2025 |
| 59 | Stavropol Kraikrai | 2.9M | 1.24 | 2025 |
| 60 | Tver Oblastoblast | — | 1.24 | 2025 |
| 61 | Ulyanovsk Oblastoblast | — | 1.23 | 2025 |
| 62 | Yaroslavl Oblastoblast | — | 1.23 | 2025 |
| 63 | Kaliningrad Oblastoblast | — | 1.22 | 2025 |
| 64 | Voronezh Oblastoblast | 2.3M | 1.22 | 2025 |
| 65 | Altai Kraikrai | 2.3M | 1.20 | 2025 |
| 66 | Republic of Kalmykiarepublic | — | 1.20 | 2025 |
| 67 | Kursk Oblastoblast | — | 1.20 | 2025 |
| 68 | Novgorod Oblastoblast | — | 1.20 | 2025 |
| 69 | Lipetsk Oblastoblast | — | 1.16 | 2025 |
| 70 | Tambov Oblastoblast | — | 1.15 | 2025 |
| 71 | Tomsk Oblastoblast | — | 1.15 | 2025 |
| 72 | Kemerovo Oblastoblast | 2.6M | 1.13 | 2025 |
| 73 | Penza Oblastoblast | — | 1.13 | 2025 |
| 74 | Ryazan Oblastoblast | — | 1.13 | 2025 |
| 75 | Tula Oblastoblast | — | 1.13 | 2025 |
| 76 | Oryol Oblastoblast | — | 1.12 | 2025 |
| 77 | Bryansk Oblastoblast | — | 1.11 | 2025 |
| 78 | Volgograd Oblastoblast | 2.5M | 1.10 | 2025 |
| 79 | Belgorod Oblastoblast | — | 1.08 | 2025 |
| 80 | Saratov Oblastoblast | 2.4M | 1.08 | 2025 |
| 81 | Sevastopolfederal city | — | 1.08 | 2025 |
| 82 | Vladimir Oblastoblast | — | 1.06 | 2025 |
| 83 | Republic of Mordoviarepublic | — | 1.04 | 2025 |
| 84 | Smolensk Oblastoblast | — | 1.01 | 2025 |
| 85 | Leningrad Oblastoblast | 2M | 0.91 | 2025 |
Why this country’s demographics matter
Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
National fertility, age structure, and migration set the size of the next workforce and the next electorate.
- Period TFR versus replacement (~2.1) is the first number — then who is having the children, if an official split exists.
- Neighbors on the same World Bank series are the “ah, they have X children” chart.
- 2040 workers are mostly already born; TFR shows up around 2060. Who works, retirement age, and migration move 2040.
- Family policy elsewhere (France, Hungary, Korea) has not returned a high-income country to replacement in recent decades.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. The case for a pronatal culture as the response is on what's the solution?. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.