Overview
Key figures and core demographic trends for United States.
Population
341.8M
Fertility Rate
1.63
Life Expectancy
78.9y
GDP / capita
$90K
Pop. Growth
0.52%
Net Migration
1.2M
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Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
YTD births (4 mo) -1.8% YoY
TFR 2024
1.60
TFR 2025
1.57
TFR 2026
1.55
Births YTD (4 mo)
1.1M
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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Economy
National accounts and international trade.
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Exports & imports
International trade for United States — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
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Migration
Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of United States, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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OECD definition: unemployed share of the labour force among native-born vs foreign-born residents aged 15–64. National offices (e.g. Statistics Sweden) may publish slightly different figures for other age bands or months — we show the internationally comparable OECD series. Latest: native-born 4.1%, foreign-born 4.3% (2024).
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Largest foreign-born communities in United States by country of birth (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in United States who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Demography
Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 8% smaller than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 421 million in 2100 — higher than this run (low 308 million, high 566 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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Source & definition: Live births by mother's nativity (Pew Research Center analysis of CDC/NCHS natality data). 'Foreign-born' = mother born outside the United States.
Each country's statistical office defines “migrant background” differently (mother's citizenship, country of birth, or parents' origin), so figures are not directly comparable across countries and may be out of date. Always check the cited source for the latest official numbers.
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Mortality & longevity
Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1960), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized.
Health, education & infrastructure
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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Society, housing & beliefs
Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
5.8
Divorce rate
2.5
Births outside marriage
40.0%
Home ownership
66.0%
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- Christian67.0%
- Unaffiliated23.0%
- Other5.0%
- Jewish2.0%
- Buddhist1.0%
- Hindu1.0%
- Muslim1.0%
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States & provinces
Total fertility rate by first-level administrative division.
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| # | Division | Population | TFR | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakotastate | 924.7K | 2.00 | 2023 |
| 2 | Nebraskastate | 2M | 1.91 | 2023 |
| 3 | North Dakotastate | 796.6K | 1.85 | 2023 |
| 4 | Alaskastate | 740.1K | 1.83 | 2023 |
| 5 | Louisianastate | 4.6M | 1.83 | 2023 |
| 6 | Iowastate | 3.2M | 1.81 | 2023 |
| 7 | Texasstate | 31.3M | 1.81 | 2023 |
| 8 | Kansasstate | 3M | 1.81 | 2023 |
| 9 | Kentuckystate | 4.6M | 1.80 | 2023 |
| 10 | Utahstate | 3.5M | 1.80 | 2023 |
| 11 | Idahostate | 2M | 1.79 | 2023 |
| 12 | Mississippistate | 2.9M | 1.79 | 2023 |
| 13 | Oklahomastate | 4.1M | 1.78 | 2023 |
| 14 | Arkansasstate | 3.1M | 1.78 | 2023 |
| 15 | Indianastate | 6.9M | 1.77 | 2023 |
| 16 | Alabamastate | 5.2M | 1.73 | 2023 |
| 17 | Tennesseestate | 7.2M | 1.73 | 2023 |
| 18 | New Jerseystate | 9.5M | 1.70 | 2023 |
| 19 | Minnesotastate | 5.8M | 1.69 | 2023 |
| 20 | Wyomingstate | 587.6K | 1.68 | 2023 |
| 21 | Hawaiistate | 1.4M | 1.68 | 2023 |
| 22 | Ohiostate | 11.9M | 1.68 | 2023 |
| 23 | South Carolinastate | 5.5M | 1.67 | 2023 |
| 24 | Missouristate | 6.2M | 1.67 | 2023 |
| 25 | North Carolinastate | 11M | 1.66 | 2023 |
| 26 | Georgiastate | 11.2M | 1.65 | 2023 |
| 27 | Delawarestate | 1.1M | 1.63 | 2023 |
| 28 | Wisconsinstate | 6M | 1.63 | 2023 |
| 29 | Marylandstate | 6.3M | 1.61 | 2023 |
| 30 | West Virginiastate | 1.8M | 1.60 | 2023 |
| 31 | Arizonastate | 7.6M | 1.60 | 2023 |
| 32 | Floridastate | 23.4M | 1.60 | 2023 |
| 33 | Virginiastate | 8.8M | 1.60 | 2023 |
| 34 | Montanastate | 1.1M | 1.56 | 2023 |
| 35 | New Mexicostate | 2.1M | 1.55 | 2023 |
| 36 | Pennsylvaniastate | 13.1M | 1.55 | 2023 |
| 37 | Michiganstate | 10.1M | 1.55 | 2023 |
| 38 | New Yorkstate | 19.9M | 1.53 | 2023 |
| 39 | Connecticutstate | 3.7M | 1.52 | 2023 |
| 40 | Illinoisstate | 12.7M | 1.50 | 2023 |
| 41 | Nevadastate | 3.3M | 1.50 | 2023 |
| 42 | Washingtonstate | 8M | 1.49 | 2023 |
| 43 | Californiastate | 39.4M | 1.48 | 2023 |
| 44 | Coloradostate | 6M | 1.45 | 2023 |
| 45 | Mainestate | 1.4M | 1.40 | 2023 |
| 46 | Massachusettsstate | 7.1M | 1.40 | 2023 |
| 47 | New Hampshirestate | 1.4M | 1.38 | 2023 |
| 48 | Oregonstate | 4.3M | 1.35 | 2023 |
| 49 | Rhode Islandstate | 1.1M | 1.34 | 2023 |
| 50 | Vermontstate | 648.5K | 1.29 | 2023 |
| 51 | District of Columbiadistrict | 702.3K | 1.20 | 2023 |
Crime by ancestry, origin & race
Official statistics where published · definitions differ by country.
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Sentenced prisoners (sentence > 1 year) under state or federal jurisdiction, by race and Hispanic origin. White and Black are non-Hispanic. Counts rounded to nearest 100 for race/ethnicity. Remaining “other/two or more races” are in the BJS total but not shown as a separate series here.
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Arrests reported to the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program by race (Table 43). Race categories are not mutually exclusive with Hispanic ethnicity — Hispanic arrestees are included in the race categories (mostly White). Agency coverage varies by year; absolute counts are not a full national census of all arrests.
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Arrests for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter by race (FBI UCR Table 43). Same race/ethnicity caveats as total arrests.
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Why this country’s demographics matter
Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
U.S. fertility is below replacement; the population is shifting by race and Hispanic origin, and Social Security math is an age-structure story.
- Census: non-Hispanic White share fell from about 80% in 1980 to 58% in 2020; projections put it near 44% by 2060, with Hispanic rising toward 28%.
- Births lead the stock: by 2022 nearly half of births were to non-Hispanic White mothers — lower than their share of residents. Groups also differ by age and by metro/region.
- NCHS 2023 TFR by race and Hispanic origin of the mother is the official fertility split — Hispanic ~1.95, non-Hispanic White ~1.53, non-Hispanic Black ~1.58.
- Immigration is the main reason population still grows while national TFR is below 2.1. UN DESA stock and World Bank net migration are the series to cite.
- FY2024 federal outlays ~$6.8T (CBO); Social Security ~$1.45T and Medicare ~$0.87T already dominate the age-linked budget.
- State maps (CDC / BirthGauge) and /demographics/us show the geography of births and ACS race shares.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. The case for a pronatal culture as the response is on what's the solution?. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.