United States demographic briefing

A memo you can forward: why fertility matters, how this country compares with its neighbors, and how many working-age people versus retirees the pyramid already implies. Tick sections, park each chart next to the paragraph it belongs with, then generate — or start from blank headings and write it yourself. After that, every heading and paragraph is editable, and Expand / Tighten / Ask AI can rewrite one section at a time.

U.S. fertility is below replacement; the population is shifting by race and Hispanic origin, and Social Security math is an age-structure story.

AI prose uses the same OpenAI key as Cohort — add billing credits at platform.openai.com if generate or Expand fails. Limited to a few memos per hour. You can always type over the text.

This briefing will cover

Census: non-Hispanic White share fell from about 80% in 1980 to 58% in 2020; projections put it near 44% by 2060, with Hispanic rising toward 28%.
Births lead the stock: by 2022 nearly half of births were to non-Hispanic White mothers — lower than their share of residents. Groups also differ by age and by metro/region.
NCHS 2023 TFR by race and Hispanic origin of the mother is the official fertility split — Hispanic ~1.95, non-Hispanic White ~1.53, non-Hispanic Black ~1.58.
Immigration is the main reason population still grows while national TFR is below 2.1. UN DESA stock and World Bank net migration are the series to cite.
FY2024 federal outlays ~$6.8T (CBO); Social Security ~$1.45T and Medicare ~$0.87T already dominate the age-linked budget.
State maps (CDC / BirthGauge) and /demographics/us show the geography of births and ACS race shares.

Working-age counts are modeled from today’s pyramid. 2040 taxpayers are mostly already born; TFR shows up around 2060.

🇺🇸 United States briefing