Net Migration
11.5K
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Open CBS 1960–2020 fertility table (PDF) · CBS fertility by religion
Period total fertility rate by religion of the woman. Long series from CBS live-births/fertility releases (1960, 2000–2020) and Statistical Abstract 2024 diagrams (2022–2023). 2023: Jewish 3.00, Muslim 2.81, Druze 1.75, Arab women 2.66, national 2.85. Jewish and Muslim period rates crossed around 2020. Religiosity within Jewish and Muslim populations (Haredi 6.8 in 2022–24, secular Jewish 1.9, etc.) is a separate CBS table — see tfr-by-religiosity-israel.json. The Israel Democracy Institute’s earlier Haredi estimate was 6.4 for 2020–2022. Replacement-level fertility is marked at 2.1 children per woman.
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Period total fertility rate by the woman's self-reported level of religiosity, from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Separate ladders for Jewish and Muslim women. The Jewish Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) rate of 6.8 is the CBS religiosity estimate for 2022–24 — distinct from the religion-only table (Jewish / Muslim / Druze / Arab) and from the older Israel Democracy Institute Haredi estimate of 6.4 for 2020–2022. Southern-District exclusions remove Negev Bedouin from the Muslim comparison. †Excludes the Southern District and removes Negev Bedouin. Non-religious non-Bedouin Muslim women: 1.76 (sub-replacement).
Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
YTD births (3 mo) +1.2% YoY
TFR 2024
2.87
TFR 2025
2.88
TFR 2026
2.90
Births YTD (3 mo)
44.1K
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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National accounts and international trade.
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International trade for Israel — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
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Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of Israel, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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OECD definition: unemployed share of the labour force among native-born vs foreign-born residents aged 15–64. National offices (e.g. Statistics Sweden) may publish slightly different figures for other age bands or months — we show the internationally comparable OECD series. Latest: native-born 4.6%, foreign-born 4.6% (2022).
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Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 161% larger than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 20 million in 2100 — lower than this run (low 15 million, high 26 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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68%
1988
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1961), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized. See also the mortality explorer.
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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91.8%
1983
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
1.6
Divorce rate
—
Births outside marriage
—
Home ownership
—
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9per 1,000
2019
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
Israel still has developed-world-high fertility, but the politics sit in the gaps between Jewish, Arab, Haredi, and settlement schedules — not in the national average.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.
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Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in Israel who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
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