Overview
Key figures and core demographic trends for Poland.
Population
36.4M
Fertility Rate
1.14
Life Expectancy
78.4y
GDP / capita
$28.4K
Pop. Growth
-0.34%
Net Migration
-330.8K
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Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
YTD births (3 mo) -0.9% YoY
TFR 2024
1.12
TFR 2025
1.03
TFR 2026
1.10
Births YTD (3 mo)
57.5K
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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Economy
National accounts and international trade.
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Exports & imports
International trade for Poland — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
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Migration
Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of Poland, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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First residence permits issued during the year to non-EU citizens for employment-related reasons, by citizenship of the permit holder. EU free-movement workers are not included. National administrative definitions of “employment” permits vary; figures are not identical to every country’s domestic “work permit” count. Eurostat table.
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OECD definition: unemployed share of the labour force among native-born vs foreign-born residents aged 15–64. National offices (e.g. Statistics Sweden) may publish slightly different figures for other age bands or months — we show the internationally comparable OECD series. Latest: native-born 2.9%, foreign-born 3.4% (2024).
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Largest foreign-born communities in Poland by country of birth (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in Poland who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Demography
Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 51% smaller than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 19 million in 2100 — higher than this run (low 13 million, high 28 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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Mortality & longevity
Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1960), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized.
Health, education & infrastructure
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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98.7%
1978
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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Society, housing & beliefs
Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
0.8
Divorce rate
1.7
Births outside marriage
26.0%
Home ownership
87.0%
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- Christian92.0%
- Unaffiliated7.0%
- Other1.0%
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0.1per 1,000
2020
Only one year available — not enough points for a trend line.
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Crime by ancestry, origin & race
Official statistics where published · definitions differ by country.
See the full availability guide →
Share of persons held in prison with foreign citizenship. This is not a conviction-by-ancestry series.
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Why this country’s demographics matter
Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
Poland’s low fertility and emigration of working-age adults tighten the workers-per-retiree path faster than TFR alone implies.
- Period TFR well below replacement; EU free movement shaped net migration for two decades.
- Family-policy packages (e.g. child benefits) are politically salient — cite GUS outcomes, not campaign claims.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. The case for a pronatal culture as the response is on what's the solution?. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.