Overview
Key figures and core demographic trends for Brazil.
Population
212.8M
Fertility Rate
1.61
Life Expectancy
76.0y
GDP / capita
$10.7K
Pop. Growth
0.38%
Net Migration
-217.3K
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Provisional fertility nowcast
Source: National Statistical Offices or Ministries of Health / Interior · compiled by @BirthGauge. Full nowcast table · provisional, may be revised.
YTD births (4 mo) -2.1% YoY
TFR 2024
1.48
TFR 2025
1.53
TFR 2026
1.51
Births YTD (4 mo)
835.7K
Rates per 1,000 people per year — not absolute birth or death counts. When the birth rate exceeds the death rate, natural increase is positive (before migration).
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Economy
National accounts and international trade.
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Exports & imports
International trade for Brazil — product exports and imports from OEC / BACI.
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Migration
Net migration, permits, and the foreign-born population of Brazil, plus where migrants come from and where the diaspora lives.
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Largest foreign-born communities in Brazil by country of birth (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Top destinations for people born in Brazil who now live abroad (2024) · arrow shows change since 2010.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024
Demography
Age structure, projections, and population composition.
That is 42% smaller than in 2025. The animation freezes the latest fertility rate. It is a model, not an official forecast. UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium is 163 million in 2100 — higher than this run (low 106 million, high 240 million). UN lets fertility change over the century and includes some migration; this run does not.
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Mortality & longevity
Life expectancy, death rates and child mortality as far back as vital registration and historical reconstructions allow (from 1960), plus infant and maternal mortality.
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Pre-1960 life expectancy and long child-mortality series are from Our World in Data (Riley, Zijdeman et al., HMD, UN). Historic crude death rates cover countries in the Human Mortality Database only — Sweden from 1751, France from 1816, and so on. Crude rates are not age-standardized.
Health, education & infrastructure
Spending, capacity and attainment. Coverage is thinner than for demographic series — most figures come from periodic surveys rather than continuous registration.
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Society, housing & beliefs
Family, crime, housing and religion indicators.
Homicide rate
19.3
Divorce rate
1.6
Births outside marriage
67.0%
Home ownership
73.0%
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- Christian84.0%
- Unaffiliated11.0%
- Other5.0%
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Why this country’s demographics matter
Age structure, fertility gaps, and migration change budgets and electorates. This is the constraint, not a manifesto.
Brazil has completed a fast fertility transition; regional and education gaps still shape the age structure.
- National TFR is below replacement; Northern and lower-education schedules remain higher than the South and Southeast.
- The demographic dividend window narrows as the pyramid ages — jobs and productivity are the constraint.
The longer argument — pensions, schools, coalitions, and what migration does and does not offset — is on why birthrates matter. The case for a pronatal culture as the response is on what's the solution?. To turn this country’s series into a memo you can forward, open the briefing builder — generate a draft, write it yourself, then expand any paragraph.